Why Facebook poll predicts ‘Idol’ winners accurately

PULLMAN – A new trend in surveys has a Facebook site accurately predicting the “American Idol” top and bottom three winners every week. Researchers at WSU’s Social and Economic Sciences Research Center, the largest university-based survey research center in the Pacific Northwest, explain how this could happen.

“The Idol Fanatic” Facebook page has an application through which fans can vote for their favorite contestants. So far the page’s 1,600 members have perfectly predicted the week’s winner and bottom three.

“This isn’t really what we would consider a phone poll; instead, it is a self-selected survey,” said Director John Tarnai. “That is, people self-select themselves into the survey, which I think probably explains why the Facebook page can predict the winners.

 

“In both cases, it is people who are interested in ‘American Idol’ and the contestants who self-select themselves into the survey,” he said. “The fact that some people use the telephone and others use a Facebook page or texting is less important than that they are interested enough in ‘American Idol’ to want to send in their votes.”

The operating principle is what Danna Moore, the center’s associate director, calls saliency – the strong interest of the voting viewer; the stronger the interest, the more likely the act of voting.

To keep with this Tuesday night’s “American Idol” theme of “inspiration,” you might say both the phone and the Facebook voters are inspired. You might also say, as does Moore, that neither method makes for a legitimate survey, as it doesn’t reflect the broader population.

“It does not tell you anything about the portion of people in the population that had no opportunity to participate, as they aren’t watching the show,” Moore said. “Chances are that people not watching the show would be very different and they are also not asked to vote.”

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